Saturday, December 20, 2008
UPDATE
Sorry about the lack of posts recently, we have not folded (yet, at least). I am actually in the midst of creating a tool that will track the plus/minus of each player on the team, much like what you might see in hockey. It was brought up in conversation that the GM of the Houston Rockets actually uses something similar as a metric, so I would like to see what kind of insight this stat will bring. Furthermore, I hope to try and keep an up-to-date database of our players from here on out, with the goal of being able to break down our team and player performance under different conditions (home or away, start time, attendance). Look for some initial statistical analysis in the next few weeks or so. In the meantime, I believe the Predictor will add some commentary on our upcoming conference slate for basketball as well as some insight on the Sun Bowl as well as on the football season as a whole. Happy Holidays and Hail to Pitt!
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Previewing Pitt-Rutgers
With all the focus on the past/future of the football program (burning Pat Bostick’s redshirt, what this means for the future of the program, whether Wannstedt has enough vision to become an elite coach etc), I’ll take a look at the present. This upcoming Rutgers game looks like an easy win. The Knights come in at 2-5 and are statistically terrible on offense. But the Scarlet Knights defense and special teams have kept them in games, and they are coming off of an emotional win against UConn.
Rutgers seems to have had Pitt’s number recently (they’ve won 3 straight after winning 3 of the previous 22 meetings). A lot of that had to do with the matchups. As a defense, Rutgers relies on manufacturing pressure on the quarterback through a variety of blitz packages. Offensively, the Knights relied on a terrific backfield with Brian Leonard and Ray Rice. With Leonard and Rice both in the NFL, the Knights’ offense has both taken a step back and shifted focus. Rutgers is last in the Big East in scoring offense, and clearly miss their running game. But with 2 NFL caliber receivers (Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood) and an experienced, if inconsistent quarterback (Mike Teel), Rutgers has moved more towards a pass-first offense that employs lots of spread and empty backfield formations.
Rutgers strategically had the upper hand against the Panthers the past 3 years mostly because of the way the Pitt teams were set up. In 2005 and 2006, the Panthers’ offensive line was thin and inexperienced. In addition, the absence of a consistent running game put much of the burden on Tyler Palko and the passing game. Rutgers used this to their advantage, attacking Pitt with a variety of blitzes and forcing 15 sacks in 3 games. Pitt’s inexperience and lack of depth on defense, particularly on the defensive line, left the Panthers vulnerable to the run, and a good Rutgers rushing attack looked unstoppable, totaling over 600 yards in 3 games.
This year should be different. Rutgers generally doesn’t employ “run blitzes,” and so Shady McCoy’s mere presence should be enough to force Schiano to tone down the pressure at the risk of getting burned with a big run. And the Knights’ lack of a legitimate rushing threat means that the Panthers need not fear giving up over 200 yards again.
Pitt still needs to do several things in order to comfortably dispatch Rutgers.
- The Panthers need to avoid frequent 3rd and long situations, where Rutgers would be able to dial up the pressure with their blitzes.
- The offensive line needs to communicate effectively and pick up the blitzers.
- Offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh would also be wise to call a few screens (Jonathon Baldwin anyone?) in obvious passing situations to keep Rutgers honest.
- Shady McCoy needs to be patient. Rutgers doesn’t routinely run blitz, but my guess is that there are going to be times when he gets the ball and has a couple of defenders in his face. He needs to take the 2 or 3 yard gains rather than dancing around looking to break the big one.
- The Pitt secondary needs to stay focused early. Rutgers is more than capable of the deep pass play, and Pitt needs to avoid losing the momentum battle early, especially since Rutgers is coming off of an emotional win. I was, however, impressed by the way the Pitt defense bounced back after giving up an early big play to Navy.
- Avoid special teams mistakes. A blocked punt or fumbled kick return would just make things easier for an offense that’s struggled to move the ball.
All things considered, I think Pitt finally matches up well with Rutgers. Rutgers has struggled to shift their offense to a pass-first system, and Pitt’s strength on the defensive line and secondary certainly will help. Offensively, I look for Pitt to stick with a heavy dose of Shady, trying to attack this aggressive Rutgers defense.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Rutgers 10
Rutgers seems to have had Pitt’s number recently (they’ve won 3 straight after winning 3 of the previous 22 meetings). A lot of that had to do with the matchups. As a defense, Rutgers relies on manufacturing pressure on the quarterback through a variety of blitz packages. Offensively, the Knights relied on a terrific backfield with Brian Leonard and Ray Rice. With Leonard and Rice both in the NFL, the Knights’ offense has both taken a step back and shifted focus. Rutgers is last in the Big East in scoring offense, and clearly miss their running game. But with 2 NFL caliber receivers (Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood) and an experienced, if inconsistent quarterback (Mike Teel), Rutgers has moved more towards a pass-first offense that employs lots of spread and empty backfield formations.
Rutgers strategically had the upper hand against the Panthers the past 3 years mostly because of the way the Pitt teams were set up. In 2005 and 2006, the Panthers’ offensive line was thin and inexperienced. In addition, the absence of a consistent running game put much of the burden on Tyler Palko and the passing game. Rutgers used this to their advantage, attacking Pitt with a variety of blitzes and forcing 15 sacks in 3 games. Pitt’s inexperience and lack of depth on defense, particularly on the defensive line, left the Panthers vulnerable to the run, and a good Rutgers rushing attack looked unstoppable, totaling over 600 yards in 3 games.
This year should be different. Rutgers generally doesn’t employ “run blitzes,” and so Shady McCoy’s mere presence should be enough to force Schiano to tone down the pressure at the risk of getting burned with a big run. And the Knights’ lack of a legitimate rushing threat means that the Panthers need not fear giving up over 200 yards again.
Pitt still needs to do several things in order to comfortably dispatch Rutgers.
- The Panthers need to avoid frequent 3rd and long situations, where Rutgers would be able to dial up the pressure with their blitzes.
- The offensive line needs to communicate effectively and pick up the blitzers.
- Offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh would also be wise to call a few screens (Jonathon Baldwin anyone?) in obvious passing situations to keep Rutgers honest.
- Shady McCoy needs to be patient. Rutgers doesn’t routinely run blitz, but my guess is that there are going to be times when he gets the ball and has a couple of defenders in his face. He needs to take the 2 or 3 yard gains rather than dancing around looking to break the big one.
- The Pitt secondary needs to stay focused early. Rutgers is more than capable of the deep pass play, and Pitt needs to avoid losing the momentum battle early, especially since Rutgers is coming off of an emotional win. I was, however, impressed by the way the Pitt defense bounced back after giving up an early big play to Navy.
- Avoid special teams mistakes. A blocked punt or fumbled kick return would just make things easier for an offense that’s struggled to move the ball.
All things considered, I think Pitt finally matches up well with Rutgers. Rutgers has struggled to shift their offense to a pass-first system, and Pitt’s strength on the defensive line and secondary certainly will help. Offensively, I look for Pitt to stick with a heavy dose of Shady, trying to attack this aggressive Rutgers defense.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Rutgers 10
Monday, October 20, 2008
Current State of Pitt Athletics (Part 1)
Pitt Football
It seems as if from the moment Pitt gave up that ill-fated 60 yd screen pass to Darius Walker in the fall of 2005, there has been a raging debate over the legitimacy of this football program, much of which falls on the man calling the shots. I will not hesitate in pointing out that Dave Wannstedt is not, and may not ever, be a great coach. He has made some terrible decisions in the past, whether it is punting with a lead from the opposing team's 35 and 34 yd lines, throwing a fade to the long side of the field in OT at home instead of playing for another series, or consistently underutilizing possibly our best passing weapon (hint: it's not Baldwin...yet), which I believe to be his biggest crime. Yes, he certainly likes to err on the side of caution and is seemingly hell-bent on instilling his form of pound-between-the-tackles in each of our players. This has and will continue to hurt us in certain situations. However, this mindset has absolutely come with some great benefits as well. For example, do you really think we would have gotten LeSean McCoy had we still been the pass happy West Coast offense we had under Walt Harris? Doubt it. Without LeSean McCoy, could we have beaten WVU last year? Not a chance. Circle around to this year, and without that win, we would be watching Baldwin and Saddler play in the Maize and Blue while Shayne Hale waits as the heir apparent to Laurinitis.
Furthermore, the sticking point this year has been the loss to Bowling Green. Certainly, that game did nothing to prove to fans that this team would be different from teams of the past. However, can you say that this team has regressed since? Besides a flat start against Syracuse, it seems as if this group has improved with every single half of play. People may compare this season's win against USF with last season's win against WVU. I'll give you two reasons why I disagree with this sentiment. First, look at the way in which we won each game. Against WVU, our team got itself a small lead in the second half and hung on for dear life. Had we been down by 1 with five minutes to go, that Pitt team wouldn't have even advanced the ball to midfield, let alone score. Yet, this year, despite giving up a lead late in the game, Stull led the team down the field for a response and the game winning score in 3 plays. Second, there definitely seemed to be a hangover following the win in Morgantown. The team became overconfident and then came out and laid an egg against Bowling Green. You can blame it on the coach, but Wannstedt didn't fumble in the opponent's territory while leading, our best player did. Wannstedt didn't fumble twice in the fourth quarter, two of our veterans did. Wannstedt didn't miss a field goal with four minutes to go that would have put us within 7, the best kicker in the Big East did. A loss can never be fully pinpointed on a coach staff or on the players exclusively. There is always accountability across the board in these situations, and that game could not have been a better example.
Second, if you look at our follow-up to the USF win, many people were predicting a similar letdown. We had two weeks off, thus possibly allowing some of the emotional high to drain off while having to prepare for a unique offense in the triple option. Yet, we went out and beat a team at their place with a record setting attendance. And we didn't just beat them, we pounded a team that had wins over Rutgers and Wake Forest, the number 16 team at the time. And we didn't just pound a good team ,we held them to their lowest rushing output in two seasons. Want to argue that their starting QB was out? Look at our OLB's, a key position in defending the option, which consisted of a converted RB and redshirt freshman making his third start and a walk-on converted wide receiver. Though it may not seem like it to an outsider, this may have been the most important win of these past four years, if you consider the circumstances (coming off a big win) and what it may do for the psyche of this team.
Looking back, that loss against Bowling Green may have been a blessing in disguise. This team has now learned it's lesson. They know that they can beat anyone and lose to anyone; it is just up to them to decide which path to take. Teams are allowed to find themselves during a season. Teams are allowed to have bad games. Yes, it is extremely unfortunate from the fan's perspective that they lost the first game of the season, yet I feel that the vast majority of Pitt fans have buried themsleves in the results of the past three seasons. In reality, losing the first game of the season did not hinder the rest of our season, as national championship was never in the cards and the Big East title is still within reach.
Ultimately, a program is defined by it's head coach, regardless of whether or not that is fair or accurate. Our head coach is Dave Wannstedt. The fact of the matter is, Wannstedt is not a perfect coach. Far from it. However, rather than focusing on some of the poor decision making he has made during his tenure, look at the talent he has assembled. The talent we have on the field this year give us a chance to win every game we play, which we could not have said three years ago.
It seems as if from the moment Pitt gave up that ill-fated 60 yd screen pass to Darius Walker in the fall of 2005, there has been a raging debate over the legitimacy of this football program, much of which falls on the man calling the shots. I will not hesitate in pointing out that Dave Wannstedt is not, and may not ever, be a great coach. He has made some terrible decisions in the past, whether it is punting with a lead from the opposing team's 35 and 34 yd lines, throwing a fade to the long side of the field in OT at home instead of playing for another series, or consistently underutilizing possibly our best passing weapon (hint: it's not Baldwin...yet), which I believe to be his biggest crime. Yes, he certainly likes to err on the side of caution and is seemingly hell-bent on instilling his form of pound-between-the-tackles in each of our players. This has and will continue to hurt us in certain situations. However, this mindset has absolutely come with some great benefits as well. For example, do you really think we would have gotten LeSean McCoy had we still been the pass happy West Coast offense we had under Walt Harris? Doubt it. Without LeSean McCoy, could we have beaten WVU last year? Not a chance. Circle around to this year, and without that win, we would be watching Baldwin and Saddler play in the Maize and Blue while Shayne Hale waits as the heir apparent to Laurinitis.
Furthermore, the sticking point this year has been the loss to Bowling Green. Certainly, that game did nothing to prove to fans that this team would be different from teams of the past. However, can you say that this team has regressed since? Besides a flat start against Syracuse, it seems as if this group has improved with every single half of play. People may compare this season's win against USF with last season's win against WVU. I'll give you two reasons why I disagree with this sentiment. First, look at the way in which we won each game. Against WVU, our team got itself a small lead in the second half and hung on for dear life. Had we been down by 1 with five minutes to go, that Pitt team wouldn't have even advanced the ball to midfield, let alone score. Yet, this year, despite giving up a lead late in the game, Stull led the team down the field for a response and the game winning score in 3 plays. Second, there definitely seemed to be a hangover following the win in Morgantown. The team became overconfident and then came out and laid an egg against Bowling Green. You can blame it on the coach, but Wannstedt didn't fumble in the opponent's territory while leading, our best player did. Wannstedt didn't fumble twice in the fourth quarter, two of our veterans did. Wannstedt didn't miss a field goal with four minutes to go that would have put us within 7, the best kicker in the Big East did. A loss can never be fully pinpointed on a coach staff or on the players exclusively. There is always accountability across the board in these situations, and that game could not have been a better example.
Second, if you look at our follow-up to the USF win, many people were predicting a similar letdown. We had two weeks off, thus possibly allowing some of the emotional high to drain off while having to prepare for a unique offense in the triple option. Yet, we went out and beat a team at their place with a record setting attendance. And we didn't just beat them, we pounded a team that had wins over Rutgers and Wake Forest, the number 16 team at the time. And we didn't just pound a good team ,we held them to their lowest rushing output in two seasons. Want to argue that their starting QB was out? Look at our OLB's, a key position in defending the option, which consisted of a converted RB and redshirt freshman making his third start and a walk-on converted wide receiver. Though it may not seem like it to an outsider, this may have been the most important win of these past four years, if you consider the circumstances (coming off a big win) and what it may do for the psyche of this team.
Looking back, that loss against Bowling Green may have been a blessing in disguise. This team has now learned it's lesson. They know that they can beat anyone and lose to anyone; it is just up to them to decide which path to take. Teams are allowed to find themselves during a season. Teams are allowed to have bad games. Yes, it is extremely unfortunate from the fan's perspective that they lost the first game of the season, yet I feel that the vast majority of Pitt fans have buried themsleves in the results of the past three seasons. In reality, losing the first game of the season did not hinder the rest of our season, as national championship was never in the cards and the Big East title is still within reach.
Ultimately, a program is defined by it's head coach, regardless of whether or not that is fair or accurate. Our head coach is Dave Wannstedt. The fact of the matter is, Wannstedt is not a perfect coach. Far from it. However, rather than focusing on some of the poor decision making he has made during his tenure, look at the talent he has assembled. The talent we have on the field this year give us a chance to win every game we play, which we could not have said three years ago.
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